Anticipate whole year's CPI as 3.5%

Aggregate demand and kernel inflation the strong correlation, and non-nuclear core inflation is weak correlation, the growth down goes a ≠ inflation to down go

  Can is divided into the kernel inflation to the inflation with non-nuclear core inflation.No matter from the definition of kernel inflation, still from our country of historical data to look, kernel CPI and aggregate demand are close correlation, rather than kernel CPI be discount oakley sunglasses mainly suppliesed ballistic impact, with aggregate demand uncertain correlation.12 years' characteristics of the inflation is kernel inflation stability, the non-nuclear core inflation factor increases, therefore growth down goes to mean dropping of aggregate demand, but non-nuclear core inflation combine the step out drop.The trend of GDP speed - up inside the year, and the trend of of inflation, also versus independence, quarter GDP together compares a growth may gradually moderate upward, but quarter CPI together benelux fluctuation then to the order of U.

  Four greatly and lately rise in price the factor is as weak as aggregate demand relevance, whole year CPI super - expectation, 4-9 months, inflation is in the aspects of versusing a low bit 2012 lately rising in price factor mainly having four:One is a fuel rate;Two is a hair to change Wei rate reconstruction;Three is an agricultural products rate;Four is a work force rate.Above four greatest factors, only cheap aviator sunglasses have fuel rate and chinese aggregate demand contraction and fuel inward to cut the line in possible bear on , other and economies, with the monetary policy is from the tight or not there is no materiality relation.We think that 12 year, the slump of aggregate demand will cause kernel CPI persist to get down, but above four greatly and lately rise in price the factor can't decline because of the slump of aggregate demand, two parts add up to look, support us for 12 beginning of a years to the criterion of the proptosis:

  1, total CPI anticipate the whole yearses as 3.5%, slightly field in the supermarket sees;

  2, the inflation slightly present a flat bottom pot of type, 4-9 months, the inflation versuses lower.

  3, have no special changes such as the pork rate, and 4-9 month weightlessness big rate reconstruction scheme proptosis stand, then CPI inside the year together than low the possible accrue is at 6-7 months.

  The lower growth, higher inflation leads to monetary policy:Cutting interest rates is hopeless and cut and place preparation and continue a lower growth, higher inflation and mean that the macroscopic figure looks economic and circulates fair from the GDP speed - up, invest, consume and foreign trade etc., but the disposable income growth etc. microeonomy figures to look from the business in the black, revenue receive and resident economic run - time may sorrow.2 quarter CPIs will continue to get down, the true rate of interest has already hoped a realize to turn into positive from owe, but 3 quarter ends arrive 4 quarter inflation to allow of no optimism, inflation press still more big, come to a decision space and probability of interest rates cut thereof dc hats very small.But reduced price deposit reserves rate etc. tend loose the policy is still necessary, the justification has three: On being the bottom that the foreign exchange has a sub - section to go, two is that the business in the black is worse, three is the obvious slowdown of government receipts growth.In 2012 the minor cycle of quarter economic growth and business in the black upward, the incapability covers up a cycle growth to get down for the coming 2-3 the middle of the year and business performance the declivity adjust press.

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